COPS forum mafia
- Thread starter pharphis
- Start date
Quick questions:
Did you do any lie analysis? Does the theory hold no matter if Player X is lying?
Who started with what sanity?
A sane cop investigating town would receive....?
A sane cop investigating mafia would receive...?
An insane cop investigating town would receive...?
An insane cop investigating mafia would receive...?
A neutral cop (?) investigating town would receive...?
A neutral cop investigating mafia would receive...?
Did you think this yesterday? If so, why didn't you speak up about it when you voted Zokar? To me, it looked like you wanted to test Laarz' theory.
Code:
N1 N2 N3
CG BA-town
Zokar numbers-mafia BA-town Drixx-town
Drixx Drixx-town numbers-mafia
Goryani Zokar-town Sathoris-mafia BA-town
Sathoris CG-mafia Drixx-neutral Sathoris-mafia
Bad Ash Goryani-town numbers-mafia BA-town
Numbers Laarz-mafia Goryani-neutral Zokar-town
Cdm
Laarz Sathoris-mafia Goryani-neutral BA-townIf someone is investigated by multiple players the same day, each cop receives the same result. It's happened 2 days. It's happened with 2 investigatees N2 and 1 investigateee N3. It's happened with 4 investigators N2 and 3 investigators N3.
Of the living... Noone has all town results. Noone has all mafia results. Everyone has a town result except Sathoris. Everyone has a mafia result.
Choice in using "sanity" to describe this was poor on my part, rather it's the player's "starting point" in the spectrum of choices. ....->town->mafia->neutral->town->mafia->.....
So, the questions about sane/insane/neutral don't really apply since we're not talking about sanity in the traditional sense.
To be, hopefully, a bit more clear, let me try to rephrase:
Player A investigates Player B on Night 1 and gets a mod determined "random" result. For argument sake, lets say that Player A gets a mafia result on Player B. The impact of this action is to "realign" that spectrum of choices stated earlier.
In this case, Player B can be thought to be at the mafia point in that spectrum. On Night 2, Player B investigates Player C.
town->(mafia)->neutral is Player B's view of the world. So, to the right is his view of what is really town. So he sees town members as being neutral and he sees mafia as being town. If Player B on Night 2 investigates Player C and gets neutral, he knows Player C is actually town (town to the right, mafia to the left). If he investigates Player C and gets town, the he knows Player C is actually mafia (mafia to the left, town to the right).
There are some chains that are not impacted by lies. Example, Drixx is town, we know that. Look at his record.
Drixx investigated Drixx as town on N1 so he sees the world as (neutral-)->(town*)->(mafia+) where - is mafia * is neutral and + is town. He's viewing the world from the town being neutral position. So, on N2 he investigates Numbers as mafia+, which from this perspective means + is town and thus Numbers is town. This is a completely isolated chain and given that Drixx is known to be town, I trust his results as being told accurately in thread and this I believe Numbers to be town and believe what he says to be accurately reported.
Looking at Numbers then: Numbers investigates Laarz as mafia, so Laars sees the world from the perspective of mafia being neutral: (town-)->(mafia*)->(neutral+). On N2, Laarz investigates Goryani as neutral from his perspective or town in the absolute perspective.
However,
Zokar investigated Numbers as mafia, so Numbers sees the world as mafia being neutral: (town-)->(mafia*)->(neutral+). On N2, Numbers also investigates Goryani and sees his as neutral or, relative to the absolute perspective, Numbers knows that Goryani is town. Both Laarz and Numbers agree that Goryani is town.
We can continue this chain quite a bit.
As for deceptions, yes, I looked into that quite a bit. What is interesting about deception here is that it bites you in the ass.
If BA was being truthful about his N1:Goryani:Town read, then on N2, Goryani's read of Sath:Mafia actually means that Sath is genuinely town.
However, I believe the chain from Drixx->Numbers->Goryani to be genuine. This mean that if Goryani really investigated Sath as Mafia on N2, then on N3 Sath would see things from a mafia is neutral perspective: (town-)->(mafia*)->(neutral+) and I believe this to be true.... Sath investigates himself as mafia which would make him neutral in a game of no neutrals. Which makes Sath a liar.... OR...
if BA was lying and say he did N1:Goryani:Mafia, then on N2 Goryani's read would mean Sath is neutral centered and when he self investigates.... he ends up actually investigating himself as the mafia he really is
... am I wrong? maybe... but I've gone through the vast majority of possible combinations that are possible given the dead town we know and how that restricts results... and it feels like it fits pretty well.
Then to top it all off, the last two comments from BA/Sath pretty much make me think they're scum even without this...
If I understand your theory correctly, it's impossible for someone who was investigated as town on N1 to receive a town result N2. This also true for mafia/mafia and neutral/neutral.
Violations:
Zokar received town result N2 and should have received mafia or neutral.
Sathoris received mafia result N3 and should have received neutral or town.
BA received town result N3 and should have received mafia or neutral.
These violations aren't "mafia" results - they shouldn't be possible at all. A lie.
Violations:
Zokar received town result N2 and should have received mafia or neutral.
Sathoris received mafia result N3 and should have received neutral or town.
BA received town result N3 and should have received mafia or neutral.
These violations aren't "mafia" results - they shouldn't be possible at all. A lie.
Will revisit the theory...
LIke I said, may be wrong. That being said, I do find it peculiar that I think I pegged the two mafia but for a potentially wrong reason.
On N2, there were 3 mafia results and 3 town results but only 2 mafia, so this not being random, I find it unlikely that those two groups of results describe any mafia in it, save for the lone result that doesn't fit, aka BA:Town. Why is that special, why does he not fit the mold?
On N3, there were all town results except 1, coincidence? Sathoris is the only verdict that does not fit into an overall pattern. Why is that special, why does he not fit the mold?
My previous potentially broken theory aside, I find myself wondering why those two... and only two are so different in a game with exactly two mafia....
Funny thing... this is probably about the simplest damn pattern to observe and I didn't really see it before trying to figure out something complicated hehe.
At any rate, I still see no reason for me to change my vote, except to put it on Sathoris.
LIke I said, may be wrong. That being said, I do find it peculiar that I think I pegged the two mafia but for a potentially wrong reason.
On N2, there were 3 mafia results and 3 town results but only 2 mafia, so this not being random, I find it unlikely that those two groups of results describe any mafia in it, save for the lone result that doesn't fit, aka BA:Town. Why is that special, why does he not fit the mold?
On N3, there were all town results except 1, coincidence? Sathoris is the only verdict that does not fit into an overall pattern. Why is that special, why does he not fit the mold?
My previous potentially broken theory aside, I find myself wondering why those two... and only two are so different in a game with exactly two mafia....
Funny thing... this is probably about the simplest damn pattern to observe and I didn't really see it before trying to figure out something complicated hehe.
At any rate, I still see no reason for me to change my vote, except to put it on Sathoris.
A lie needs to be sold. Were at mylo. If we were wrong about you, scum wouldve locked you and it wouldve been game over. Whatever the cop mechanic is we wont reach an agreement, so we need to go on scum reads.
I could actually get behind a Sathoris as scum theory, but there is two problems.Choice in using "sanity" to describe this was poor on my part, rather it's the player's "starting point" in the spectrum of choices. ....->town->mafia->neutral->town->mafia->.....
So, the questions about sane/insane/neutral don't really apply since we're not talking about sanity in the traditional sense.
To be, hopefully, a bit more clear, let me try to rephrase:
Player A investigates Player B on Night 1 and gets a mod determined "random" result. For argument sake, lets say that Player A gets a mafia result on Player B. The impact of this action is to "realign" that spectrum of choices stated earlier.
In this case, Player B can be thought to be at the mafia point in that spectrum. On Night 2, Player B investigates Player C.
town->(mafia)->neutral is Player B's view of the world. So, to the right is his view of what is really town. So he sees town members as being neutral and he sees mafia as being town. If Player B on Night 2 investigates Player C and gets neutral, he knows Player C is actually town (town to the right, mafia to the left). If he investigates Player C and gets town, the he knows Player C is actually mafia (mafia to the left, town to the right).
There are some chains that are not impacted by lies. Example, Drixx is town, we know that. Look at his record.
Drixx investigated Drixx as town on N1 so he sees the world as (neutral-)->(town*)->(mafia+) where - is mafia * is neutral and + is town. He's viewing the world from the town being neutral position. So, on N2 he investigates Numbers as mafia+, which from this perspective means + is town and thus Numbers is town. This is a completely isolated chain and given that Drixx is known to be town, I trust his results as being told accurately in thread and this I believe Numbers to be town and believe what he says to be accurately reported.
Looking at Numbers then: Numbers investigates Laarz as mafia, so Laars sees the world from the perspective of mafia being neutral: (town-)->(mafia*)->(neutral+). On N2, Laarz investigates Goryani as neutral from his perspective or town in the absolute perspective.
However,
Zokar investigated Numbers as mafia, so Numbers sees the world as mafia being neutral: (town-)->(mafia*)->(neutral+). On N2, Numbers also investigates Goryani and sees his as neutral or, relative to the absolute perspective, Numbers knows that Goryani is town. Both Laarz and Numbers agree that Goryani is town.
We can continue this chain quite a bit.
As for deceptions, yes, I looked into that quite a bit. What is interesting about deception here is that it bites you in the ass.
If BA was being truthful about his N1:Goryani:Town read, then on N2, Goryani's read of Sath:Mafia actually means that Sath is genuinely town.
However, I believe the chain from Drixx->Numbers->Goryani to be genuine. This mean that if Goryani really investigated Sath as Mafia on N2, then on N3 Sath would see things from a mafia is neutral perspective: (town-)->(mafia*)->(neutral+) and I believe this to be true.... Sath investigates himself as mafia which would make him neutral in a game of no neutrals. Which makes Sath a liar.... OR...
if BA was lying and say he did N1:Goryani:Mafia, then on N2 Goryani's read would mean Sath is neutral centered and when he self investigates.... he ends up actually investigating himself as the mafia he really is
... am I wrong? maybe... but I've gone through the vast majority of possible combinations that are possible given the dead town we know and how that restricts results... and it feels like it fits pretty well.
Then to top it all off, the last two comments from BA/Sath pretty much make me think they're scum even without this...
#1 is your nonstop campaign against crackpot theories the entire game until your ass is on the line.
#2 is that this is the most crackpot theory of the entire game and you have the stones to call it simple.
My vote is locked in for today
Flat out intentional misrepresentation... if you actually bothered comprehending anything, you'll notice that it was the second assertion that I said was simple... which was that it's a bit "convenient" that there is a single odd result on each day and that happens to be the two of you....
BA: So you're saying that you're sure enough that zokar is scum that you'd prefer to force a mislynch(since we need all town to vote for scum if we're going to get them lynched) rather than lynch anyone else?
Laarz: Why did you spend that time yesterday bringing up your theory, but were unwilling to actually vote in favor of the results it suggested? And then today continued to lay suspicion on zokar(through specifically asking for his results first), but still refuse to vote for him?
Sathoris: Do you actually have a reason for any of the votes you've placed so far? I've seen you cycle around with who you're willing to vote for, but I don't believe I've seen a reason for why you believe(d) those players were scummy.
Goryani: Did/Do you have any reason for voting BA in the past, beyond the logical inconsistency of thinking there are lots of cops, and being so vehemently against a no lynch on D1? Do you believe that Zokar's invalid results, which you labelled a lie, are more likely to be honest mistakes, or lies meant to confuse town? If just mistakes, why use the lie language?
Zokar: At what point did this theory of yours coalesce into something you believed in enough to bring up? In spite of the clear inconsistencies pointed out by Goryani? Did you notice those inconsistencies and just dismiss them out of hand, or did you just think they wouldn't be noticed?
Laarz: Why did you spend that time yesterday bringing up your theory, but were unwilling to actually vote in favor of the results it suggested? And then today continued to lay suspicion on zokar(through specifically asking for his results first), but still refuse to vote for him?
Sathoris: Do you actually have a reason for any of the votes you've placed so far? I've seen you cycle around with who you're willing to vote for, but I don't believe I've seen a reason for why you believe(d) those players were scummy.
Goryani: Did/Do you have any reason for voting BA in the past, beyond the logical inconsistency of thinking there are lots of cops, and being so vehemently against a no lynch on D1? Do you believe that Zokar's invalid results, which you labelled a lie, are more likely to be honest mistakes, or lies meant to confuse town? If just mistakes, why use the lie language?
Zokar: At what point did this theory of yours coalesce into something you believed in enough to bring up? In spite of the clear inconsistencies pointed out by Goryani? Did you notice those inconsistencies and just dismiss them out of hand, or did you just think they wouldn't be noticed?
Yep! I've seen nothing today to change my mind on who I am voting for, the only other person I could someway somehow be talked into voting for is Sathoris.
Mainly because Zokar isn't locked right now, if sath is town Zokar is scum.
Also with the town of lynching a single person before Mylo I don't really give a crap what the rest of the town thinks.
I will vote today, will you? you could have voted yesterday for Zokar but didn't.
Either of us could have, and we both didnt. I wasnt convinced about your theory and didnt see any further reason to think zokar was scum yesterday so I didnt vote for him. His presentation of a theory today, which contains obvious holes, is pushing me to think he may be scum by itself though.
In short, im currently leaning towards voting for Zokar, but im going to be around all day and dont see a reason why I shouldnt see what else, if anything, everyone else has to say so we can use that information in making an informed decision tomorrow.
Then I see that we are both on the same page, if Zokar isn't mafia, what can we do tomorrow, it would be 2-2 with a NK and mafia in control it seems to me.
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