I'll let my statistics department know that they're wasting their time then when I get to work. Thank's for the info.
Amazing Item Find Career Start
- Thread starter Noodle
- Start date
Shagsbeard said:
Maybe he's just saying that you can beat the odds. So the guy had a great run of luck, and I would assume that anyone who has played for a long time has done the same. You have never had a time when things were going unbelievably well? I had a green Dusk Shroud and a gold Sacred Armor on the ground at the same time in the Pits (Oh, how I wished the colors were reversed).
All the stats do is display the probabilities, but it is not hard data.
What I'm saying is exactly what I'm saying. These things are *odds* as in, unlikely but can happen. If 1:40000 meant impossible I wouldn't have my steel pillar from baal. Do I hax because of that? I forgot who found the tyrael's but does he hax cause he found something that is not isenhart's armour? And where do you draw the line? Is it "okay" to find one TC87 item per week but if you find more than 3 this proves you hack? I've worked with a professional statistician for my masters and even he told me that statistics don't really prove anything. They help understand data and to give predictions but, getting back to D2, you can never say I hack just because I claim I found a specific item in an area that can drop it. You can call me a hacker when I claim I get tyrael's from pindle as this is impossible, or a vex from the hellforge. But if I get 7 guls in a row from the hellforge this doesn't prove I hack. Just as the 8 Ios I got in a row don't prove that I hack. It's possible and it's just as likely as any other combination.
With the general atmosphere on the forums in mind, wouldn't you agree that accusations of hacking that cannot be proven might better be kept to oneself? If you have suspicions nobody stops you from not trading with that person or to watch his posts for classic runes. But this is bullcrap.
With the general atmosphere on the forums in mind, wouldn't you agree that accusations of hacking that cannot be proven might better be kept to oneself? If you have suspicions nobody stops you from not trading with that person or to watch his posts for classic runes. But this is bullcrap.
I am 100% with NF on this one. There is NO evidence, not even a good articulable suspicion here. I have done a complete restart before. If you put any time into it at all a restart doesn't really take that long.
How many here have done a complete restart, it changes everything. When most of us started the game there was a HUGE learning curve, that is why it seems like it takes FOREVER to get good stuff. Anyone who has done a full restart should know that with the knowledge you carry over, getting new good stuff doesn't take long.
Ask Kefir, he did a restart right before the last MFO, and he cleaned up in that contest.
I have to say Noodle, without something other than 'you found good stuff' I think you were way, way out of line on this thread.
How many here have done a complete restart, it changes everything. When most of us started the game there was a HUGE learning curve, that is why it seems like it takes FOREVER to get good stuff. Anyone who has done a full restart should know that with the knowledge you carry over, getting new good stuff doesn't take long.
Ask Kefir, he did a restart right before the last MFO, and he cleaned up in that contest.
I have to say Noodle, without something other than 'you found good stuff' I think you were way, way out of line on this thread.
I always love those threads about statistics. i have no clue about the possibility to get a tc87 is it 1:1.000.000 or maybe 1:100.000.000. But this change is for 1 monster. Right so what if someone played all day doing only pitruns? How many monsters will he kill? 200 per run? And how long will it take for 1 run? 5 minutes? So if you play 8 hours you will kill 96 * 200 = 20.000 monsters... Hmm better odds imo.. Not great yet but better...
Drixx said:
Something's wrong here...no green breastplates :shocked:
Seriously, though, it's funny how statistics work. Drixx has much, much more stuff than I do, but, many of the things he's missing, I've got 2 or 3 or more of them. I've got 2 War Travelers, 2 Titan's Revenge, 4 or 5 Darkglow, in the last couple of weeks, but I've only found ~25-30% of the grail items so far.
The point is, the statistics are good, but as long as we are dealing with small sample sizes*, they are pretty much only good to tell us how lucky we are.
-Jason
*When we're looking at all items in the grail, my ballpark definition of "statistically small sample size"** is anything less than 1,000,000 items found. I could be underestimating.
**I am not a statistician but I use a fair amount at work
I agree with you, Ohomemgrande, but one thing you should always consider when looking at other people's item reports is that they might not keep everything. For example, I will mule off every single Shadowkiller I find simply because it is one of my favorite weapons, but I will most definetly not mule off more than 2-3 green breastplates. Actually 2 was pushing it already...
This is stuff for PMs. Do not air your dirty laundry in public. THREAD REPORTED.
With your powers combined, I am not captain planet. But I do declare a lock. No more posts. (There, I said it bluntly.)
crg
With your powers combined, I am not captain planet. But I do declare a lock. No more posts. (There, I said it bluntly.)
crg
What exactly should the PM be about? Will I get 20 PMs calling hax the next time I post an astreon's in the item find thread? Do you really think slinging the dirt behind the scenes is so much better? Imo the general attitude towards new people should change a little. Wasn't there this one guy lately who gambled a griffon's and got jumped by all sorts of people? You think people like that will think our forum any friendlier if they get flamed in PMs rather than in a thread? Imo hiding the problem solves nothing. Problem being the baseless accusations, not people actually getting lucky.
The PM should be to a mod, not the player. However, that PM should only be where there at least more than an inkling of evidence (read: more than none). Again, its all about appropriate posting/pm'ing/forum responsibility.Nightfish said:
crg
I agree - in retrospect, I didn't handle this very well. I'm not too proud to not admit when I've acted inappropriately. I should have brought any concerns to a mod privately. Apologies for airing dirty laundry publicly.
- Noodle
- Noodle
FlimFlan said:
Eh? Either I'm completely missing your point, or you may not fully understand the exact definitions of what you're talking about. Statistics are not theoretical numbers pulled out of thin air; they are based on "hard data". Just because they don't always predict exactly what the results of a series of events will be doesn't mean they aren't based on real data. If you were to record that, in a certain year, it rained 14 days in March, then you could say that it doesn't necessarily mean it will probably rain 14 days in March of the following year. However, in this case, the probabilities are built into the code of the game, and thus the statistics are more reliabe because they are controlled and not merely obsereved from a limited sample size.
For example, Shagsbeard was talking about standard deviations. This is important to know because a simple probability might say that Hell Meph has odds of dropping item "X" of 1:10,000. Does this mean that if we run Meph 10,000 times, he will drop that item? No, but a standard deviation can tell us "how many times do I need to run Meph before I have a 95% probability of finding that item". Obviously, that would take more than 10,000 runs.
If someone were to find item "X" after 5 Meph runs, does that make him a cheater? Of course not. You always have a probability, however slight, of finding any item on your first run. However, take that probability and multiply it for each of the items on that list over the amount of runs you could actually accomplish in a 3-week span and that number starts to get very, VERY, small. Does this now mean he must be a cheater? Still no. I agree that there's no reason to claim cheating in this case other than the "it sounds too good to be true" argument, so I'm certainly not in favor of making any accusations without some other reason to suspect foul play (inconsistent stories, impossible ilvls, etc.).
That being said, I also don't like to see people swing too far in the other direction by implying that the numbers don't mean anything, because it would be foolish to ignore the numbers.
My intention is not to flame anyone or escalate any hostility. I just felt the need to defend the position of those, like myself, who tend to look at things from a more analytical perspective. I may disagree with the reasons this thread was started in the first place, but that doesn't mean we can't use it as an opportunity to discuss some of these issues. Especially since it seems to be growing source of contention around here lately.
Crazy Runner Guy said:
I agree, however, I do think it incumbent upon members of this forum to try to keep a modicum of respect and the atmosphere that we want.
I see no problem in our community calling on a member to pull back a bit.
There were no personal attacks made in the call for restraint, so I do not understand why you take it upon yourself to declare the issue closed.
Let this die for god sake
Noodle has showed his apologies and I don't think the member with the finds is hacking, besides, NF is right, what do you expect from flaming someone? To all the member to flame him/her so he/she flees from the forum? Great minds people
This coming from a place we could brag to be the warmest place on the net............. sad, very sad
AE should use his mighty powers and close this thread whom brings shame to the whole SPF.
Noodle has showed his apologies and I don't think the member with the finds is hacking, besides, NF is right, what do you expect from flaming someone? To all the member to flame him/her so he/she flees from the forum? Great minds people
This coming from a place we could brag to be the warmest place on the net............. sad, very sad AE should use his mighty powers and close this thread whom brings shame to the whole SPF.
Oreius said:
If I did the math correctly, ~29.9 k drops are required to have a 95% probability of getting at least one of item X at those drop odds.
Basically I found the odds of getting the item not to drop X times in a row until X gave an answer that was 5%
(9999/10000)^X = 0.05
This is fun probability math. I don't have enough time to figure out the distribution of how many X you get if you get one but it would obviously range from the most common 1 drop of X to the extremely rare 29.9 k of item X
-Jason
Being relatively new to SPF, I have to agree this forum would look pretty hostile to a newcomer. There have been several instances of players getting jumped for good finds. There have also been cries of 'preserving the purity of SPF (which I agree with)' or 'nobody can be that lucky'. Such debate would scare newcomers away, which will only hurt the single player forum.
Maybe we should stop jumping at the bit when somebody with a low post count/relatively unknown posts his lucky finds. Most of the posters who have been jumped made no intention of trading, and were just looking to share their good fortune with other D2 fanatics. If you think a person is using hacks or dupes, then don't deal with them and if you feel it necessary, PM your friends with your opinons so they can make their own call. Open flaming on the board just causes a lot of hard feelings and again, would make prospecitve newcomers hesitate to jump into the lions den (perhaps why there are more lurkers than members most of the time?).
As for probabilities, **** happens. I play 1.11b vanilla and my current character received 3 of the same rares in a Meph drop, with only slight differences in the statistics... this with 120% magic find. I've also received 2 rings of the apprentice in one drop... I'm not a statician by any means, but such 'luck' seems improbable to me (Too bad I never get any high end items!). Both drops were on / players 8, by the way.
I guess what I'm saying is that everybody plays the game their own way and we should respect what other people do on their own computers. Our tournaments and finds work on trust in this forum's community... one reason I switched from BNET because everybody there seemed out for themselves (at least the ones I met).
Maybe its time we get this open in another thread because the more we close such threads or have a mod take action, the more this situation gets put on the back burner. In the end, Diablo 2 is fun game we all enjoy and we should give lucky Magic Finder's congratulations unless the items are obviously hacked (A carver dropping Tal Rasha's belt in ACT 1 normal, for example). In the latter case, don't post "That's a hack" because the long time players will know the drop is probably faked. A PM to friends would:
1.) Warn them about trading with the individual, or joining his games.
2.) Preserve the SP community for everybody and
3.) Eliminate rants, accusations, and flames that might scare away potential members from SP.
Peace all, and I hope this helps.
Maybe we should stop jumping at the bit when somebody with a low post count/relatively unknown posts his lucky finds. Most of the posters who have been jumped made no intention of trading, and were just looking to share their good fortune with other D2 fanatics. If you think a person is using hacks or dupes, then don't deal with them and if you feel it necessary, PM your friends with your opinons so they can make their own call. Open flaming on the board just causes a lot of hard feelings and again, would make prospecitve newcomers hesitate to jump into the lions den (perhaps why there are more lurkers than members most of the time?).
As for probabilities, **** happens. I play 1.11b vanilla and my current character received 3 of the same rares in a Meph drop, with only slight differences in the statistics... this with 120% magic find. I've also received 2 rings of the apprentice in one drop... I'm not a statician by any means, but such 'luck' seems improbable to me (Too bad I never get any high end items!). Both drops were on / players 8, by the way.
I guess what I'm saying is that everybody plays the game their own way and we should respect what other people do on their own computers. Our tournaments and finds work on trust in this forum's community... one reason I switched from BNET because everybody there seemed out for themselves (at least the ones I met).
Maybe its time we get this open in another thread because the more we close such threads or have a mod take action, the more this situation gets put on the back burner. In the end, Diablo 2 is fun game we all enjoy and we should give lucky Magic Finder's congratulations unless the items are obviously hacked (A carver dropping Tal Rasha's belt in ACT 1 normal, for example). In the latter case, don't post "That's a hack" because the long time players will know the drop is probably faked. A PM to friends would:
1.) Warn them about trading with the individual, or joining his games.
2.) Preserve the SP community for everybody and
3.) Eliminate rants, accusations, and flames that might scare away potential members from SP.
Peace all, and I hope this helps.
Arreat_mercenary said:Let this die for god sake
Noodle has showed his apologies and I don't think the member with the finds is hacking, besides, NF is right, what do you expect from flaming someone? To all the member to flame him/her so he/she flees from the forum? Great minds people
AE should use his mighty powers and close this thread whom brings shame to the whole SPF.
Who are you talking about? Are you referring to people flaming Kedali? or Noodle?
Noodle apologized, its all good. I didn't even see any real flaming in here.
I still don't understnad the holier than thou attitude that makes people post saying "quit posting".
In what way does this thread bring shame?
Noodle's maturity solved the entire issue. People disagreed with what he did and expressed it (all of them were respectful to Noodle in doing so), Noodle saw the error and apologized.
In what way is this shameful?
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