Re: Tournament Scoring Discussion
@bassano: I think you might want to reread what jjscud wrote. From what you say, you're not actually agreeing with him.
The actual scoring system we have now is not "good". It has worked for years because it's good enough, but it does have one major flaw: very artificial score hike for 4 items (Tyraels, Stormlash, Schaefer's and Azurewrath). That's something that should be dealt with no matter what system jjscud can come up with.
OK, I missed some posts , but with this
table you are wrong with last line, if I understood it correctly
I did not understood another posts where you are saying that TC78 weapons are even rarer then TC87 ones but let´s skip this and only use your table as my argument
I did not get why that score should be half. On thunder mauls OK, ratio of drops is 1vs1 but why put lash points to half a place of 5/6*34 or 9/10*96.4 which is more realistic and logical for me
if you will do 17 for lash, how many points will get DW or asteron? If 27.9 as usual, it is wrong beacuse statistic of MF competitions say something else
e.g. if you will have 48 points for Tyrael and 28 for DW do you want to say that you have
only twice more DW drops then Tyrael drops? You see how unreal this is
And how many Tyraels have been found in MFO? e.g. 6 and how many DW? e.g. 25, this looks more for actual scoring system then for yours
I think that you put more effort to write some arguments then to use simple statistic
maybe that scoring system you are proclaiming will put smaller luck into competition beacuse Tyrael will not be allmighty but true will be somewhere else
All I wanted to say: let´s do a statistic, we did enough runs to be correct with that, even if you will count only MFO numbers it is just a huge help
and btw. if this
table are numbers from your runs, it is really low number to do a statistic, so from this you can not say anything about probability of drops, I found really lot of Scourges during last MFO and really few of them during some another MFO so it is a lot about moment
edit:
You are contradicting yourself.
If you want to use the 6 Tyrael's vs. 25 DW's argument, you can use it just as well towards The Cranium Basher vs. other things. But hold on, you don't want to do that. So you do want to look at statistics (i.e. straight out probability) for items you like (Tyrael's, Lash) but not for items you don't like (The Cranium Basher, Veil of Steel), there you want to half the score.
That's inconsistent.
There is much difference between Tyrael and Thunder Mauls. to be correct it is 10 times different
beacuse you simply can not divide number by 2 beacuse thre is ratio 1/10 and not 1/2
Beacuse My statistics ofc count sum of all Thunder Mauls I have found and that number said it is a same like number of BA´s. So use previous argument to this.
The system you want to use treats drops inconsistently. I think that should be changed in general, for things like MFO. People want to use system by jjscud because he put a lot of work into it and it is based on sound principles. jjscud agrees with me that the current system is actually inconsistent.
Maybe is inconsistent but system you are saying is much worse then current one, believe me that lot of players will protest even more then you againist this one
And this is not about tournament I am running, scoring system there is just done but this is about all MF tournaments
And I do not want to use it beacuse it was hard to made but beacuse I like it
And a big, fat NO, NO, NO to your whole idea about general use of statistics.
Simple example: if you throw a coin 1,000 times and get 507 times "heads" it doesn't mean that the coin is ubalanced. As a matter of fact, the probability of getting exactly 500 heads vs. 500 tails is very very small.
What you're proposing with using actual results is essentially the same as testing how good the coin is by tossing it 1,000 times.
We don't need statistics from the results of MFO's. We have actual original probabilities.
I do not want to use statistic for do different scoring system, I want to use it as prove you are wrong, nothing more
And for your simple example, statistic have more variabilities then simple number: e.g. drop distribution and standard deviation so 507 Thunder Mauls vs 502 BA´s or 495 Hydra Bows will say you a lot
most important question I have for you: Give me a prove that stormlash should be for 17 a place of 34, one prove, simple number or simple argument, without everything it is write here before and i will say you OK
edit2: yeah, I found argument so your system is right in this point of view and it have really something usefull and something to think about, so sorry that I used too strong arguments but still strong argument is tradition and manners which worked lot of time
And the same my opinion is to keep it beacuse stormlash or shaefers is something which you can save you when someone will find class specific TC87 weapon which is worth 27.8 points beacuse when you did same number of runs and he was enough lucky that he found one of them you can be enough lucky to find
right scourge or mallet
Beacuse MFO is more about moment of the week then about long time MFing and this moment is based on this system (ofc. thunder mauls and mighty scepters are exception confirming rule
)
[highlight]Items with a single base but uneven odds[/highlight]
Second, While this appears to be different from the items with equal probabilities above, over the long term its not, the expected score from getting 9 sacred armors is within a few points of the expected score of getting 9 thundermauls with double-point scoring.
Third, the resulting score for Tyrael's Might is so high that it basically can't be beaten, changing the "top 5" into a "top 1" in all but one instance.