Odds on a D4 reveal in 2019?

[In The Name of Zod]

I think its been since about 2016 that Diablo 4 has been going on at Blizzard, roughly since the time Josh left I suspect. That is, project Hades (Joshes project) gave way to project Fenris. From what I understand Hades was a third person game (not a true gauntlet inspired game) where as [from what I have read around the net] Fenris is isometric.

Fenris [current iteration of D4] apparently does not contain most of the team behind Hades as some of them went off to work on the Necromancer expansion for D3. Basically, what I am getting to is that D4 is at best may be about 3 years into development. My best guess is that it would be a 6+ year project if they are making the entire thing (new 3D engine incl). Beyond 6 years and the expense quickly becomes astronomical as the engine begins to age before they have even made a cent back on what they have spent. Which means, microtransactions or something similar.

So, say for arguments sake that they are 50% of the way to completion. Is that too early for Blizzard to announce that they are officially working on D4? Imo, looking back Blizzard announced D3 very early. They were caught looking for staff basically which lead to them feeling that they might as well take control of the situation. This time I'd be willing to bet they are relying more on headhunting or the staff they already have to build D4. Keeping projects like this from the public is a very big deal to them.

I would bet that currently they would not release a single piece of info on D4 in 2019 since we [the general public] haven't really got anything on D4 that would make them feel like they need to say anything. My odds on a D4 reveal this year are about 100:1. Anyone else feel like sharing their view and odds?

 

[zarniwoop]

Years away. Odds are 1000 to 1

 

[Peytron]

But they've already announced the new Diablo...

 

[zarniwoop]

But they've already announced the new Diablo...

Lol.

 

[In The Name of Zod]

Interestingly guys, there are quite a few job openings under 'Diablo' on Blizzards career page. Just to note though, Project Fenris's main change over Hades was a change from 3rd person back to isometric view. Another thing is that they are mentioning jobs for 'Diablo unanounced' project. The only project we know of that could fit that category is D4. Jobs titles that fit into this specific category are:

• Environment Artist - Dungeon
• Lead Character Artist
• Senior Technical Artist - Character
• Software Engineer - Generalist & Audio
• Software Engineer - Test Automation
• Software Engineer - Tools
• Camera Designer
• Narrative Designer
• Senior Dungeon Designer
• Senior Quest Designer
• Game Producer.

Many of these job descriptions have "Experience building content in any genre that uses an isometric camera".

Source: https://careers.blizzard.com/en-us/openings

 

[s4nder]

I think it's pretty likely. They've been vocal about their multiple Diablo projects and endless job openings for a Diablo game for years and after last year's debacle they know they need to give us something good.

 

[In The Name of Zod]

Well the job ads are changing as there are only 8 positions available now (was 12) and some new positions that were not advertised have sprouted. The new positions are

• Associate Software Engineer, Graphics - Unannounced Project
• Executive Producer, Diablo

Positions that have been removed are:

• Environment Artist - Dungeon
• Senior Dungeon Designer
• Senior Quest Designer
• Senior Technical Artist - Character
• Game Producer

If they have a game producer then I guess they have a mouth piece for the project, some one who will answer questions for the Q&A. If the removal of this position means it is filled then the odds of a reveal have probably increased. I don't think though that they would want to do a reveal until they are close to providing a playable demo.

 

[Dacar92]

For what it's worth Kotaku has a rumor that it will be announced at Blizzcon this year.

 

[zarniwoop]

They might announce it, but it’s 3 to 10 years away

 

[Dacar92]

I realize you're being facetious but why would they announce a game that is even three years out? If they announce it this year my guess is that it is ready enough that it might be a year, maybe 18 months away rather than double that. In any case, once it's announced then we can follow news and updates along the way.

 

[zarniwoop]

Because that's what has always done with games like Diablo.

They polish for years.

 

[In The Name of Zod]

It took them less than a few months to go from external beta testing to release of D3 and less than a year from announcing it. The polishing stuff is always going on during game development, if a task doesn't sit on the critical path of a project then you might as well continue refining using what time you have spare to do it.

This is why I believe if they announce D4 then it will likely be less than 2 years out from release, probably closer to a year and a bit at most.

Interestingly they've now added a new position:

• Lead Concept Artist - Unannounced Project (Diablo)

The software engineer roles seems to be hanging around the longest. They mention in the concept artists job description that it would be itemization oriented (weapons, set items and things like that). So if they have something for an artist to create concept art for then they must have an established data base of items for that artist to start work on.