@T72on1 So what that means is you decide "what chance do I want to find this item?" (I like to use 75%), and then you pull the total runs needed off of his graph. Usually (but not necessarily in this case) the average is 63.2% chance, and that's why drmalawi includes that number in his video, to compare with the old, supposed, average. Another way you can use the graphs is if you say "I've done 8000 runs and still dont have infinity", you can see how unlucky you are.
The point I wanted to make, was to compare how a Binomial/Poisson distribution would look like using the "naive average" given in the guide in the OP compared to the "real deal".
In other words, can we treat 1 Sur as 0.5 Ber? (which is implied in the OP guide)
Answer is: no.
@art_vandelay I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the resulting probability distribution from including cubing is no longer a plain binomial distribution (OR a high number/low probability poisson distribution that is essentially the same thing). Been discussing this with malawi on discord a while now. If it's indeed a different shape, it's not a given that 63.2% CL is the average. Would have to derive and find the centroid like i mentioned.
Exactly, the resulting distribution of including cubing is not a Binomial/Poisson.
Last edited: