I recorded a few clips comparing 3 frame vs 4 frame dragon talon, using only CoT 2 charges since Nova is the easiest to observe. I start with some distance between the Assassin and the Cow to be kicked, this will delay the kick sequence with enough time to reposition my cursor to a nearby cow. The nearby cow will only take nova damage and not single target damage from kicks. It may help to slow down the video at a lower playback speed to observe the stepped decreases in cow hp.
The first 3 sequences are with GT setup, with 3/3/3/8 kicks.
Sequence 1 and 2 show 3 hits with nova, while sequence 3 show 2 hits.
The next (and last) 3 sequences are with Suwayyah setup, with 4/4/4/11 kicks.
Sequence 4 and 5 show 3 hits with nova, while sequence 6 show 2 hits.
Due to nova's wide damage range, it's possible that an additional hit does not translate to a visible reduction in the HP bar, but after testing about a dozen times each, the 3 hits seemed more common. If someone else can replicate this test or do a better one, that would be a good confirmation. I tried not hitting the nearby cow with the edge of the nova, since I've heard some novas can double hit as it slows down at the edge. I don't think the double hit applies to CoT 2 nova though. So how are 3 out of the 4 novas hitting?
This
Amazon Basin page on strafe and next hit delay helped explain some mechanics behind missiles and NHD. Strafe and nova have the same velocity and both have 4 frame NHD, so there are some similarities in the comparison here. I created a table for Dragon Talon:
Depending on missile size/velocity and target size/velocity, the missile "contact" duration is a range. I used 1, 2, and 3 frame contact for the two testing scenarios. A green missile is a successful hit while a red missile is a missed hit due to NHD. The 4 black cells after the green collision cell represents the 4 frame NHD. I used this
old post from jrichard to break down the dragon talon action frames.
With a 3 frame contact, 3 of the 4 novas would be able to successfully hit. The 4 frame kick does win in the 2 frame contact category, but loses in the 1 and 3 frame contact category. The vast majority of D2 monsters are size 2 or 3, so the 1 frame contact should be rare. Between the 2 frame or 3 frame contact, I'm not sure which would be more common due to all the variables involved.
Conclusion is that 4 frame kick is not demonstrably better than 3 frame kick with regards to 4 frame NHD spells. However, 4 frame kick
is worse for everything else: Single target damage, FoF, BoI, leech, crushing blow, locked in place while kicking, etc.